Florida State Senator Randy Fine has secured victory in the special election for Florida’s 6th Congressional District, replacing National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Fine’s win reinforces Republican dominance in Florida and serves as an early test of Democratic enthusiasm heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
Fine Defeats Democrat Challenger Josh Weil
In a race that initially appeared competitive, Fine successfully fended off a challenge from Democratic opponent Josh Weil, who had an early voting advantage. However, as Election Day approached, Fine saw a surge in Republican voter turnout, ultimately widening the margin of ballots returned by party affiliation to double digits.
Despite Democrats pouring millions into the contest in an attempt to flip the seat, Fine’s momentum and late-game fundraising efforts helped him cross the finish line. His victory was officially declared just moments after polls closed at 7 p.m. Eastern Time.
Trump Celebrates Fine’s Victory
Former President Donald Trump was quick to celebrate Fine’s victory, posting on Truth Social:
“RANDY FINE WINS!!!”
Fine’s race was one of two special elections held in Florida on Tuesday, the other being for the state’s 1st Congressional District, where Republican Jimmy Patronis was favored to win. Patronis is replacing former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned to accept Trump’s nomination for U.S. Attorney General.
Concerns Over Republican Turnout Prove Unfounded
Fine’s campaign initially raised concerns among state and national GOP leaders, particularly regarding fundraising challenges and early voter turnout trends. However, strong Republican support on Election Day secured the win, helping House Republicans breathe a sigh of relief.
With Fine and Patronis securing victories, the GOP avoids the risk of losing seats in the House of Representatives, which could have weakened their majority before the 2026 midterms.
Trump Urges Elise Stefanik to Stay in the House
Fine’s victory comes amid strategic Republican maneuvers in Congress. Trump recently requested that Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who had been nominated to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, remain in the House to avoid another risky special election. With the GOP holding a narrow majority, every seat matters in maintaining legislative control.
All Eyes on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Race
While Republicans are celebrating Fine’s victory, attention now shifts to Wisconsin, where a high-stakes race for a state Supreme Court seat could significantly impact redistricting and election laws.
Liberal Judge Susan Crawford is facing off against former Attorney General Brad Schimel in a contest that could reshape Wisconsin’s political landscape. Crawford has openly supported re-drawing congressional maps, which could result in the elimination of two Republican-controlled districts.
Polls Show Tight Race in Wisconsin
Just last week, early voting and polling suggested Crawford had a comfortable lead. However, recent surveys from Trafalgar and Atlas Intel—two of the most accurate polling firms in the 2024 election cycle—now show the race as a toss-up.
The outcome of this election could have massive implications for Wisconsin’s election laws heading into the 2026 midterms. If Crawford wins, Democrats could gain an upper hand in future redistricting efforts, while a Schimel victory would likely preserve the current Republican-favored district maps.
Final Thoughts: Republican Momentum Ahead of Midterms?
Randy Fine’s win in Florida’s 6th Congressional District signals Republican strength in the state, but broader implications remain uncertain as Democrats continue to invest heavily in key races. With Wisconsin’s Supreme Court battle set to shape the state’s political landscape, both parties are gearing up for critical fights ahead of 2026.
Will Republicans maintain their momentum, or will Democrats make inroads in battleground states? The Wisconsin results could provide early answers.