New Electoral College Model Gives Trump Major Edge Ahead of Debate with Harris
In a major boost for former President Donald Trump, a new Electoral College model released on Monday shows him gaining significant momentum just before his highly anticipated debate against Vice President Kamala Harris. The forecast, published by a reputable pollster, gives Trump a 64.4% chance of securing the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 35.3%, marking a steady increase in Trump’s prospects over the past week.
Last week, political analyst Nate Silver’s model predicted Trump’s chances at 60.1%, with Harris trailing at 39.7%. The shift to a 64.4% chance for Trump signals growing Republican momentum, particularly in swing states. In terms of projected electoral votes, Trump is expected to secure 282, while Harris is forecasted to win 256.
Republican Gains in Swing States
Over the past week, Republicans have made notable gains, ranging from 0.3 to 1.2 points, in key battleground states. The updated forecast shows Trump now leading in all seven critical swing states, including Michigan and Wisconsin, where earlier models had shown him neck-and-neck with Harris. This shift is being closely watched as the debate looms, with political experts calling it a potentially pivotal moment for both candidates.
“This is kind of a make-or-break moment for both candidates,” said Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at Fresno State, in a statement to KSEE. He noted that Harris must present herself well, while Trump’s task will be to prevent her from gaining ground in the debate, hosted by ABC.
ABC News Poll Sparks Controversy
While the debate has drawn significant attention, so has a recent ABC News poll published 24 hours before the event, showing Harris’ popularity rising among likely voters. However, critics were quick to note the survey’s data was from late August—nearly two weeks ago—leading some to question its relevance. According to the poll, Harris enjoyed increased support from voters under 40, particularly younger women and Black voters. The analysis, provided by Langer Research Associates, claimed that support for Harris grew from 54% to 64% among likely voters under 40.
Byron York of the Washington Examiner and other political commentators raised concerns over the poll’s timing and lack of transparency, with York questioning why ABC did not use more current data to set the stage for its own debate. Daily Caller correspondent Rusty Weiss echoed these sentiments, noting that the poll appeared out of step with more recent data showing Trump leading Harris.
Silver’s Updated Forecast
Nate Silver’s updated national forecast further underscored Trump’s growing advantage, showing him leading Harris 64.4% to 35.3%. As the candidates prepare to face off in what could be a defining moment, all eyes are on how the debate will impact these shifting electoral dynamics.
As the race heats up, the debate outcome could provide a crucial turning point in the campaign, potentially altering the forecasts once again.