With less than two weeks to go before the 2024 presidential election, political betting markets are increasingly bullish on Donald Trump’s chances of reclaiming the White House. As polls tighten and swing states signal a shift, recent betting data shows former President Trump gaining substantial ground over Vice President Kamala Harris in key battleground regions.
In Arizona, Trump is predicted to win with a wide 68-32% margin, reflecting increased confidence in his appeal to the state’s voters. Georgia and North Carolina are also leaning Trump, with projected leads of 64-36% and 63-37%, respectively. North Carolina, a state grappling with a contentious FEMA disaster relief controversy, has particularly strong support for Trump among bettors.
One of the most telling developments is bettors’ predictions about the traditionally blue “wall” states. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump has edged ahead with narrow yet critical margins of 54-46% and 52-48%. Even Pennsylvania, often a decisive state in presidential elections, is projected to favor Trump, with a 55-45% lead among betting markets. The only swing state Harris is still favored to carry is Nevada, and her advantage there is a slim 51-49%. Notably, recent polls have even shown Trump ahead in Nevada by as much as 5%.
These trends have prompted 57% of bettors to predict a Trump victory, the highest share since Harris launched her campaign. The Interactive Polls group recently released the updated betting odds:
Presidential Election Winner Predictions:
- Donald Trump: 57%
- Kamala Harris: 43%
Swing States (Chance of Winning)
- Arizona: Trump 68-32%
- Georgia: Trump 64-36%
- North Carolina: Trump 63-37%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 55-45%
Analysts are also taking note of the increasingly competitive national polls. A recent Yahoo News/YouGov survey has Harris leading Trump by only 2 points, 48% to 46%, underscoring the narrow margin between the candidates. Polls have historically underestimated Trump’s support, a factor that has left Democrats on edge.
Political analyst Mark Halperin weighed in, observing the difficulties Harris faces. “What’s happening now with Kamala Harris is an experiment,” Halperin said during a recent interview on 2WAY TV. “Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate? And what I’m telling you in private polling is she’s got a problem now. It’s not cheering for Trump. It’s not predicting Trump will win, [but] she’s got a problem.”
Halperin pointed out Harris’s apparent struggle to connect with working-class voters in states like Wisconsin, where internal polling from Senator Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) campaign has shown Trump taking a lead. According to Halperin, “There’s no path without Wisconsin… Wisconsin and Michigan are looking worse than before.”
Dan Turrentine, a fellow analyst, shared Halperin’s concerns about Harris’s declining support in these states. “If you go back the last three or four weeks in Michigan and in Wisconsin, it’s gone from three to two to one to tied… and so you do have to sound the alarm bell.”
In the lead-up to the election, Harris has pulled out all the stops, campaigning with stars like Beyoncé and Bruce Springsteen and sharing the stage with former First Lady Michelle Obama. Yet, as bettors and analysts suggest, the strategy may not be resonating with key voter groups. With Trump commanding the betting markets and momentum appearing to shift in his favor, the Harris campaign faces a crucial test in the final days of the 2024 race. Ffor more details visit https://newsnotify.pk