ABC News Poll Raises Eyebrows Ahead of Trump-Harris Debate
Just one day before ABC News hosts the highly anticipated presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the network posted a poll that has left many scratching their heads. The poll touted Harris’ rising popularity among “likely voters,” but it comes with a glaring caveat—the data is from late August, nearly two weeks old.
The article in question claims that Harris has made gains in key demographics, including those under 40, women, and Black voters, while characterizing the race between Trump and Harris as “virtually identical.” The analysis, provided by Langer Research Associates, stated that Harris’ support among voters younger than 40 increased from 54% to 64% when looking at “likely voters,” while Trump’s support fell from 42% to 33% in the same group.
However, the timing of this poll has raised some serious concerns. ABC News failed to provide crucial polling information such as sample size, margin of error, and the exact polling dates within the article. This information was buried in a separate article from September 1, which largely repeats the same claims.
Criticism of ABC News quickly spread on social media, with many accusing the network of attempting to shape the narrative ahead of the debate. Washington Examiner correspondent Byron York highlighted the poll’s outdated nature, pointing out that it was conducted from August 23 to August 27, making it less relevant as the election race intensifies. York questioned why ABC would not conduct a fresh poll to set the stage for its own debate, especially given the rapidly changing political landscape.
Reporter Rusty Weiss echoed this sentiment, expressing disbelief that ABC would present old data as new. Weiss pointed out that more recent polls, even those from left-leaning sources, show Trump taking the lead over Harris, information that ABC failed to mention in their report.
Nate Silver, a well-known pollster, has also presented updated numbers that further complicate ABC’s narrative. According to Silver’s latest data, Trump now leads Harris by a significant margin, with 64.4% to Harris’ 35.3% in a national estimate. The swing states—Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania—are expected to play a pivotal role, with Trump holding an advantage in all three.
There are several potential factors behind Trump’s recent surge. His messaging on issues like crime, border security, and inflation continues to resonate with many voters, particularly in swing states. Trump has maintained a firm grip on the Republican base, while Harris has struggled to generate the same level of enthusiasm among Democrats.
Political betting markets have also started to reflect the growing perception that Trump is on the rise. Polymarket currently has Trump leading Harris with a 52% chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 46%.
As the debate approaches, the focus is now on how both candidates will perform on stage—and whether this outdated poll was a misguided attempt to sway public perception or simply an oversight. Either way, the debate promises to be a key moment in the 2024 election race.