Former President Donald Trump has made significant strides against Vice President Kamala Harris, particularly among Latino voters and independents, according to new polling data from NPR/PBS News/Marist. As the 2024 election cycle heats up, Trump has outpaced Harris in these key demographics, with the contest tightening to near deadlock.
The poll shows that Trump has surged by roughly 14 points among independents and 19 points among Latino voters compared to earlier data. In the latest multi-candidate matchup, Trump now leads Harris by three points among independents, with 49% support compared to Harris’s 46%. This marks a considerable gain from August, when Trump trailed Harris by 11 points.
A significant factor in Trump’s rise appears to be the endorsement from Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who withdrew from the race and threw his support behind the former president. Kennedy previously held 12% of the vote in August polling, and his exit seems to have contributed to Trump’s bump in support.
Latino Voters Shifting
In August, Trump had a 15-point lead among Latino voters, 54% to Harris’s 39%. By September, this gap has tightened, with Trump now leading by only four points, 51% to Harris’s 47%. Harris’s earlier surge following her nomination appears to have leveled off as the campaign dynamics evolve.
Polling expert Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, highlighted the importance of the upcoming debate: “When Trump and Harris square off in Philadelphia, the stakes are sky-high because the contest is so close. Only single digits separate the candidates on most issues important to voters. But voters who value honesty are overwhelmingly for Harris, and voters looking for strong leadership are mostly in Trump’s corner.”
With 70% of Americans indicating they plan to watch the debate, the stakes could not be higher. Around 30% of registered voters believe the debate could influence their decision, though a larger 69% remain skeptical about its impact.
National Contest Tightens
On a national level, the race between Trump and Harris is also narrowing. Harris is still ahead by a slim margin in a multi-candidate race, 49% to Trump’s 48%, a mere one-point difference from the previous month. However, in July, Trump managed to edge out President Joe Biden 43% to 42% in a similar contest.
Harris maintains a slight advantage among those who are certain to vote, leading Trump 51% to 48%. Gender dynamics are also in play, with Harris leading Trump by 15 points among women, while Trump maintains a 12-point lead among men.
Harris continues to dominate among Black voters, capturing 74% of the demographic compared to Trump’s 24%. Favorability ratings show Harris slightly ahead, with 47% of respondents viewing her favorably compared to 45% for Trump.
Voter Preferences and Key Issues
According to the poll, voters see Harris as the candidate more likely to support change (52%) and show concern for the average American (52%), edging out Trump in these categories. However, Trump is seen as stronger on issues like immigration (53%), the Middle East (51%), and the economy (52%), while Harris holds a lead on abortion rights with 56% support.
In terms of political philosophy, Harris is viewed by 47% of voters as too liberal, while 41% see her views as “about right.” Trump, on the other hand, is perceived by 43% of voters as too conservative, though an equal 43% say his views are “about right.”
With the race this tight, both candidates are seeking to sway the critical independent and Latino voting blocs in the final stretch leading up to the election.
Trump Criticizes Debate Moderators
In an interview on Wednesday morning, Trump slammed the moderators of the first debate—ABC News’s David Muir and Linsey Davis—claiming they gave Harris a pass while ganging up on him. This media friction could further energize Trump’s base as the campaign battles continue.
Celebrity Endorsements Enter the Fray
In a surprising twist, pop superstar Taylor Swift announced her presidential endorsement just minutes after the debate concluded. Swift, known for her massive influence among younger voters, described herself humorously as a “childless cat lady” while revealing her preferred candidate. Swift’s backing could sway crucial millennial and Gen Z voters as the 2024 race heats up.
As the debate draws near, the nation will be watching closely as Trump and Harris prepare to go head-to-head, with every point of voter support counting in this razor-tight race.