Kamala Harris Sparks Democratic Energy, But Trump Gains Momentum in National Polls
In a dramatic shift within the political landscape, Vice President Kamala Harris injected new life into the Democratic voter base when she announced her entry into the 2024 presidential race. This move came after President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid. Initially, Harris’s candidacy appeared to energize the party and close the gap in early polling. However, that initial enthusiasm may have peaked, with new data suggesting former President Donald Trump is regaining momentum.
Two national polls released Tuesday, from CNBC and Rasmussen, reveal Trump with leads of 2% and 5%, respectively, over Harris. These findings represent a reversal from last week when polls indicated the race was essentially tied.
Trump’s Economic Advantage
The CNBC All-America Economic Survey highlights a notable lead for Trump in key areas, especially the economy, where he is favored by more than a 2-to-1 margin. The poll shows Trump leading Harris 48% to 46%, with his approval boosted by voters who trust his economic stewardship. These numbers mirror those from July, when Trump led Biden 45% to 43%, indicating Harris has not been able to make a dent in Trump’s support among swing voters.
Polling experts point out that the race is evolving into a direct competition between the two candidates, with less focus on Trump’s controversial past and more on his economic track record. Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, who helped conduct the CNBC survey, said, “It is less now a referendum on Trump than it is a head-to-head competition between the two candidates.”
RFK’s Impact and Independent Support
The Rasmussen survey paints a similar picture, with Trump maintaining steady support. Interestingly, when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is factored into the race, Trump’s support grows to 49%, while Harris and Kennedy each lose ground. This increase of 3% since July suggests that Trump may be siphoning votes from disillusioned Democrats and independents.
Harris is finding it challenging to define herself independently from the Biden administration. As Jay Campbell, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research, put it, “She has to answer for that and define herself independently…That’s a lot of baggage to carry when you’ve got a compressed time frame against a mature campaign on Trump’s side.”
Voters’ Top Concerns: Economy and Immigration
Voters continue to prioritize the economy and immigration as their top concerns. On these issues, Trump holds a commanding lead. The economy, in particular, is proving to be a weak point for Harris, as only 48% of Democrats believe she would manage it better than Biden, while 42% say it would make no difference. A significant number of voters also feel that their financial situation would improve under a second Trump administration.
Controversy Around “Republicans for Kamala” Group
While Harris is fighting to gain ground on Trump, controversy has emerged surrounding a group called “Republicans for Kamala.” The Maine Wire, a conservative publication, released an undercover audio recording suggesting that this group might have been created by Harris’s own campaign.
In the audio, Peter Mills, a registered Democrat and the brother of Maine’s Democratic Governor Janet Mills, is heard discussing his interest in joining the group. He also mentions Amy Cookson, a staffer on the Harris campaign, who reportedly oversees the group. Mills indicated that this “Republicans for Harris” initiative is being organized by the Harris campaign itself, raising questions about the authenticity and grassroots nature of the group.
Looking Ahead
With Trump regaining his footing and Harris facing both internal and external challenges, the race for the White House is heating up. As the economy continues to dominate voters’ minds, and with independents like RFK playing a potential spoiler role, both candidates have significant hurdles to overcome in the coming months. Whether Harris can reinvigorate her campaign or Trump will capitalize on his momentum remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the 2024 election is shaping up to be another close and contentious battle.
Stay tuned for more updates as this race continues to unfold.