Trump Edges Ahead in Crucial Pennsylvania Bellwether Counties, Spelling Trouble for Kamala Harris
A recent poll from Pennsylvania’s pivotal bellwether counties, Erie and Northampton, signals a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with just under a month until Election Day. The poll, conducted by Cygnal from September 30 to October 1, shows Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 49% to 48%, a slim but significant lead in this critical swing state.
Erie and Northampton counties, which have historically predicted the state’s overall election outcome, swung for Trump in 2016 before flipping to Joe Biden in 2020. However, the latest poll suggests these counties are once again leaning Republican, driven by voter concerns over the economy and immigration.
Trump Gains Momentum as Harris Struggles
The poll highlights growing dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration, particularly in key areas such as economic performance and immigration policy. By a margin of 49% to 46%, voters in these counties believe Trump’s policies are better suited to address the nation’s challenges. His favorability rating, while not overwhelmingly positive at -4, still outperforms Harris’s -8, indicating stronger resilience among swing voters.
One of the starkest divides comes from male voters under 55, who favor Trump by a commanding 24-point margin. Meanwhile, Harris faces a significant challenge with this demographic, where her net unfavorable rating sits at a striking -36 points. Overall, Trump appears to be capitalizing on the frustrations of voters who feel left behind under the current administration.
Democratic Party Image Takes a Hit
The poll also reveals a growing discontent with the Democratic Party in these bellwether counties. While Democrats hold a 4-point registration advantage, the party faces a net negative favorability rating of -13, compared to just -4 for Republicans. This indicates that despite their numerical advantage, Democrats are struggling to hold on to voters, particularly disaffected ancestral Democrats who are abandoning the party in favor of Trump.
Missed Opportunity: Harris’s Running Mate Decision
One of the more surprising insights from the poll is the speculation surrounding Harris’s choice of running mate. Some Democrats expressed disappointment that Harris did not choose Pennsylvania’s own Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA) as her vice-presidential pick. Polling suggests that a Harris-Shapiro ticket would have had a slight edge over Trump in these key counties, leading by 48% to 47%. Shapiro’s local popularity could have given Harris a much-needed boost in Pennsylvania.
Key Issues: Economy, Immigration, and Fracking
Voter sentiment in these counties is driven largely by concerns over the economy, with 57% of voters prioritizing economic issues such as inflation. Trump’s message, positioning himself as the champion of the working class, is resonating strongly, particularly in union households, where he leads Harris by 16 points (57% to 41%).
On immigration and border security, Trump holds a commanding 15-point lead over Harris, reflecting voter frustration with the current administration’s handling of the issue. Fracking, a hot-button topic in Pennsylvania, also plays a crucial role. Harris’s recent shift to support fracking is viewed skeptically by many voters, with half of respondents supporting the practice and doubting the sincerity of her stance. Trump has successfully tapped into this skepticism, positioning himself as a more authentic and consistent advocate for the region’s energy industry.
Harris Faces Uphill Battle
With 64% of voters in these counties believing the country is on the wrong track, Harris faces an uphill battle in reversing the trend before Election Day. Trump’s growing momentum in these bellwether counties suggests a potential shift in Pennsylvania’s overall outcome, a critical state that could once again swing the election.
If these trends continue, Trump may solidify his lead in Pennsylvania, dealing a significant blow to Harris’s presidential campaign and reinforcing his appeal to working-class voters. With time running out, Harris will need to address voter concerns on the economy, immigration, and energy to stand a chance in this must-win state.