Kamala Harris’s Swing State Hopes Dwindle as Trump Gains Ground
Vice President Kamala Harris’s path to victory in key swing states is rapidly narrowing, as recent polling numbers reveal troubling trends for her campaign. A new poll conducted by The New York Times and Sienna College underscores what former President Donald Trump’s team has been touting for weeks: crucial swing states like Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia are slipping away from Harris.
The expansive survey of nearly 2,700 likely voters, released Monday, paints a grim picture for the vice president as her numbers plummet in battlegrounds that she needs to secure for a successful bid. Trump now leads Harris by 5% in Arizona, a state where she had a comfortable lead just a month ago. The story is similar in North Carolina, where Trump is now ahead by 2% after trailing Harris by the same margin in the previous poll. In Georgia, Trump has widened his lead to 4%, reversing Harris’s prior advantage from mid-August.
The polling data, gathered in the aftermath of a second assassination attempt on Trump, seems to have ignited a wave of public sympathy for the former president, boosting his numbers in these pivotal states. With a margin of error of just 3%, Trump’s leads in Arizona and Georgia are statistically solid.
State-by-State Breakdown
Arizona
🟥 Trump: 50% (+5)
🟦 Harris: 45%
Last poll (8/15) – Harris +5
North Carolina
🟥 Trump: 49% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 47%
Last poll – Harris +2
Georgia
🟥 Trump: 49% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 45%
Last poll – Trump +4
A Collapsing Strategy for Harris?
Harris’s campaign strategists are already bracing for the possibility that they could lose not only Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, but also crucial Midwestern states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Harris’s last hope could rest on securing Pennsylvania while scraping together enough Electoral College votes from split-delegate states like Nebraska and Maine. However, even this backup plan is under threat, as Nebraska Republicans are pushing to amend the state’s delegate apportionment rules, which could cost Harris vital electoral votes.
Trouble in North Carolina: Mark Robinson’s Impact
One complicating factor in North Carolina is the political baggage attached to Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson. A recent CNN exposé alleged that Robinson frequented online porn forums and left inflammatory comments, including calling himself a “Black Nazi.” The scandal led to a mass exodus of Robinson’s campaign staff, but he remains in the race. Harris’s campaign is reportedly preparing to tie Trump to Robinson, seeing his controversy as a potential weak spot for Trump in the state.
Arizona’s Immigration Crisis
In Arizona, the immigration debate has taken center stage. With the state witnessing a surge in illegal crossings, the border crisis has become a major issue, especially as Texas installs razor wire along its border with neighboring states like New Mexico. Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, is seizing on this issue, blaming her opponent, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, for supporting President Joe Biden’s executive orders that have increased asylum applications. Lake’s hardline stance on immigration could further fuel Trump’s advantage in the state.
Georgia: Fulton County Case Unravels
In Georgia, the prosecution of Trump by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has hit roadblocks. Trump’s legal team is working to have the case dismissed, arguing prosecutorial misconduct. This case has reminded voters of Trump’s long-standing claim that the legal actions against him are politically motivated. As this narrative gains traction, Trump’s lead in Georgia is growing.
What’s Next?
With Harris’s fortunes fading in these critical states, her campaign faces an uphill battle. While Pennsylvania remains a possible anchor for her electoral strategy, the ever-tightening races in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia are undeniable warning signs. For now, Trump’s resurgence in the polls and public sympathy following the latest assassination attempt have given him a clear edge as the 2024 race intensifies.
The vice president’s ability to reverse these trends may very well determine the outcome of the entire election.