Kari Lake Surges Ahead: New Polls Show Clear Path to GOP Nomination in Arizona Senate Race
Kari Lake, the former Republican gubernatorial candidate and one of Donald Trump’s staunchest allies, is poised to secure the GOP nomination in Arizona’s upcoming Senate race. According to a recent survey conducted by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), Lake is leading her closest competitor, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, by a significant margin.
The poll, carried out from July 22-23, reveals that Lake holds a commanding lead with 50% of likely Republican voters supporting her, while Lamb trails at 38%. Elizabeth Rye, the third Republican contender, garnered just 3% of the vote, leaving 9% of voters undecided. Mike Noble, CEO of NPI, emphasized the significance of Lake reaching the 50% threshold, a strong indicator of her popularity among the GOP base.
While Lake’s lead remains solid, early voting data suggests a tighter race. Among those who have already cast their ballots, Lake’s advantage shrinks to just six percentage points, though she still commands a notable 56% to 45% lead among those yet to vote.
Looking ahead to the November general election, Lake is set to face U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic frontrunner. An analysis by The Hill indicates that Lake has a slight edge over Gallego, leading 51% to 49% in recent polls. This marks a significant shift from earlier in the campaign when Lake trailed Gallego by as much as 5%.
Lake’s recent surge can be attributed to her sharp focus on immigration, a hot-button issue in Arizona. By consistently linking the rise in migrant crossings at the southern border to Gallego’s support for President Joe Biden’s policies, Lake has tapped into voter concerns in a state with mixed political leanings. Arizona, which narrowly flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, remains a crucial battleground.
Lake’s campaign, launched in February, has gained momentum with each passing month. Following President Biden’s underwhelming debate performance, Lake’s numbers improved significantly, positioning her as a strong contender not just within her party but in the general election as well.
The Republican primary, scheduled for Tuesday, has seen Lake consolidate her support within the party. She has secured endorsements from nearly half of the Republican Senators in Arizona and raised over $1 million at a high-profile Mar-a-Lago fundraiser hosted by Trump. This level of financial and political backing underscores her dominant position in the race.
Despite losing the 2022 gubernatorial race to Democrat Katie Hobbs and facing legal challenges over the election’s integrity, Lake has shifted her focus to broader issues such as Washington’s dysfunction, inflation, and housing shortages. These themes have resonated with many voters, further solidifying her as a candidate who understands and addresses the everyday concerns of Arizonans.
As the primary approaches, all eyes are on Kari Lake, who appears to be well on her way to capturing the GOP nomination and potentially flipping a key Senate seat in November.